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Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program
 
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Where will valued resources be subjected to additional stresses?

One of the most important objectives of regional vulnerability analysis is to identify areas that are particularly sensitive to further impacts. Analyses presented in earlier sections demonstrate that heavily urbanized areas have already lost most of the natural resources that are valued by society. These areas cannot be considered vulnerable in the sense that they are sensitive to further loss. Highland areas that are inaccessible to most human activities retain high levels of resources. These watersheds cannot be considered vulnerable because they are unlikely to be impacted by continued human land use changes. However, some watersheds still support valued resources and are already subjected to some level of stress. Further stress on these watersheds could result in the loss of the remaining resources.

Stressor-Resouce Overlay comparison of current and future
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The map to the left shows 19 watersheds with more than four resources in the upper quintiles and between five and ten stressors in the lower quintiles. The watersheds indicated on the map tend to fall into the foothills and plateau areas.

The figure illustrates some of the subtle features of vulnerability analysis. For example, the watershed containing Baltimore is highly stressed but is not among the most vulnerable because few valued resources remain. The watersheds identified by this analysis are rural areas that retain natural resources and have not been overrun by urban spread. Many watersheds in the highlands contain high levels of resources but are isolated from many of the stressors. The vulnerable watersheds appear in intermediate areas that can be protected by careful planning.

Results for the future scenario are displayed on the right-hand map. There are now 28 watersheds that fall into the vulnerable category. This means that nine additional watersheds have been added to the vulnerable category due to the estimated changes in impacts.

The lower map shows a direct comparison of the current and future analyses. The watersheds in dark blue include the nine new watersheds as well as watersheds that are vulnerable at present and may become more vulnerable 2020. The spatial pattern of projected damage is clear: many watersheds in the foothills of the Appalachians as well as watersheds in western West Virginia appear as vulnerable.

The watersheds shown on the figures could be thought of as "intermediate" in environmental quality. But it is this intermediate location that causes these watersheds to be vulnerable. The rural areas that still retain forest resources are vulnerable and in need of careful planning and protection.

 

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