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Where will the watersheds in the Best Environmental Condition be?
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In planning for future land use changes, it is important to assess which watersheds in the region are in
the best environmental condition at the present time and which of these watersheds are likely to be degraded by 2020. The watersheds in the best environmental condition can serve as source locations maintaining wildlife populations in surrounding watersheds. These watersheds also maintain important human values in forestry resources, clean water, and recreation potential. As such, these watersheds are a resource for the entire region and not just for local residents. If it is possible to identify watersheds in this category which are likely to degrade by 2020, it may indicate the need to restrict development or institute restoration activities to maintain environmental quality in these watersheds.
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The maps show that the top watersheds fall into three distinct clusters: highlands in North-central Pennsylvania, highlands in West Virginia, and a few coastal watersheds in Pennsylvania and Delaware. The key factors in determining environmental condition appear to be inaccessibility in areas of high topography and poor soils for extensive development along the coast. Changes with the future scenario are not dramatic. Only three watersheds (shown in blue) drop out: two in West Virginia and one of the coastal watersheds.
The future scenario used in this application does not appear to seriously impact the regional watersheds in the best current condition. This result should be viewed with caution because the future scenario used here is not a complete picture of all changes that will occur by 2020. Nevertheless, the loss of three watersheds from the top group may be significant and signal the need for protection. The most important factors in lowering the environmental quality of the West Virginia watershed appear to be forest fragmentation and impacts from Gypsy Moth and invading terrestrial species. The most important factors in lowering the environmental quality of the coastal watershed is loss of habitat resulting in a 32% lowering of the use of the watershed for migratory birds. Equally important are impacts from Gypsy Moth and invading terrestrial species.
It is not surprising that fragmentation and loss of habitat contribute to the loss of quality on these watersheds. However, it is surprising that Gypsy Moth and terrestrial exotics appear as important factors in lowering the quality of both watersheds. Integrated across the entire region, these stressors are not particularly important. Nevertheless, their impact in these high quality watersheds is sufficient to lower the environmental quality of the best watersheds.
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